Click a state below to see its detailed forecast and simulation outcomes
| Date | Harris Wins | Trump Wins | Ties | Forecast |
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The Cooper Forecast is a dead simple 2024 presidential election forecast. It is a polls-only forecast that applies some uncertainty to state-level polling averages. As time goes on, the uncertainty decreases (but never hits zero).
The model performs 100,000 election simulations. Each simulation assumes some error in the polling averages: some systematic (for example, a candidate is underestimated across the board) and some regional (for example, a candidate's under- or over-performance relative to the polls will be correlated across the midwest).
Currently, the Cooper Forecast presents a forecast and a nowcast. The nowcast pretends the election is today and, therefore, removes uncertainty around whether polling will change prior to the election.